The Mag 7 Just Hit the Buy Zone — Here's the Ranking
The seven most important stocks on Earth are trading at their cheapest growth-adjusted multiples in years. The AI capex overhang is real. The earnings are realer. Here's the full scorecard.
The Mag 7 are rarely cheap all at once. Right now, five of the seven trade below 26x forward earnings — a screen that hasn't flashed since late 2022. The AI capex cycle has spooked the Street into pricing these like they're spending with no return. The earnings say otherwise.
The Composite Scorecard
| Rank | Ticker | Price | Fwd P/E | PEG | Rev Grw | Op Mgn | FCF Mgn | St. Upside | OI P/C | γ Buffer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | $207 | 16.6x | 0.65 | 85.2% | 65.6% | 59.5% | +42% | 0.82 | 4.6% |
| 2 | META | $669 | 18.8x | 0.96 | 33.1% | 40.6% | 23.5% | +21% | 0.44 | 12.2% |
| 3 | MSFT | $402 | 20.4x | 1.19 | 18.3% | 46.3% | 19.1% | +42% | 0.44 | 8.2% |
| 4 | GOOGL | $372 | 25.4x | 1.42 | 21.8% | 36.1% | 9.2% | +16% | 0.67 | 5.7% |
| 5 | AMZN | $256 | 25.8x | 1.43 | 16.6% | 13.1% | −10.0% | +23% | 0.64 | 9.2% |
| 6 | AAPL | $332 | 34.0x | 2.54 | 16.6% | 32.3% | 24.0% | −4% | 0.72 | 14.1% |
| 7 | TSLA | $394 | 154.4x | 4.96 | 15.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | +8% | 0.76 | 1.6% |
γ Buffer = how far above gamma flip. Under 5% = fragile. OI P/C < 0.8 = call-heavy (bullish).
Valuation: Three Are Cheap, One Is Extreme
The PEG ratio tells the same story with growth factored in. Under 1.0 means you're paying less than a dollar for every dollar of expected growth.
NVDA (0.65) and META (0.96) are the only two with PEGs under 1.0. TSLA at 4.96 is in its own universe.
Quality: Who's Actually Making Money?
Rule of 40 = revenue growth + FCF margin. Above 40 is elite. NVDA's 144.7 is a number you almost never see from a $5T company.
Growth and margins together:
NVDA is the only name where both bars are tall. META has strong growth and margin. AMZN has the margin problem (retail drags it down). TSLA has neither.
The Full Heatmap: One Glance
| Fwd P/E | PEG | Grw% | OpMgn% | FCF% | St.Up% | OI P/C | γ Buf% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 NVDA | +16.6 | +0.7 | +85.2 | +65.6 | +59.5 | +42.0 | +0.8 | +4.6 |
| #2 META | +18.8 | +1.0 | +33.1 | +40.6 | +23.5 | +21.0 | +0.4 | +12.2 |
| #3 MSFT | +20.4 | +1.2 | +18.3 | +46.3 | +19.1 | +42.0 | +0.4 | +8.2 |
| #4 GOOGL | +25.4 | +1.4 | +21.8 | +36.1 | +9.2 | +16.0 | +0.7 | +5.7 |
| #5 AMZN | +25.8 | +1.4 | +16.6 | +13.1 | -10.0 | +23.0 | +0.6 | +9.2 |
| #6 AAPL | +34.0 | +2.5 | +16.6 | +32.3 | +24.0 | -4.0 | +0.7 | +14.1 |
| #7 TSLA | +154 | +5.0 | +15.8 | +4.2 | +6.5 | +8.0 | +0.8 | +1.6 |
Green = good, red = bad. NVDA's row is almost entirely green. TSLA's is almost entirely red. That's the story.
Smart Money: LEAPS Positioning
Long-dated options (365+ days) show where the real conviction money sits. Lower P/C = more bullish.
GOOGL and META are the conviction bets. The LEAPS market is saying these two are the most mispriced. NVDA's 0.76 is mid-pack — the put book is deep because it's the most institutionally-hedged name.
The biggest individual LEAPS positions:
| Ticker | Top Call Tower | OI | Target Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $300 | 93.1K | +45% |
| AMZN | $370 | 48.3K | +45% |
| TSLA | $5 (ITM) | 38.8K | Synthetic long |
| GOOGL | $650 | 22.0K | +75% |
| AAPL | $300 (ITM) | 20.5K | Synthetic long |
| META | $1,000 | 16.1K | +48% |
| META | $1,500 | 10.1K | +122% |
| MSFT | $500 | 9.9K | +25% |
META's $1,500 calls are the most aggressive bet — someone is wagering META more than doubles.
The Street: Who Has the Most Upside?
NVDA and MSFT top the list at +42%. AAPL is the only one already trading above the average analyst PT — Keybanc just downgraded to Underweight with a $250 target.
Gamma: Who Breaks First on a Selloff?
Higher = safer. AAPL and META are fortresses. TSLA is 1.6% from the gamma flip — a single bad session from dealers flipping to short gamma and amplifying the selloff. NVDA is pinned in a $5 range ($205–$210). Until one wall breaks, expect chop.
The Rankings
#1 NVDA — 16.6x fwd, 0.65 PEG, 85% growth. The growth engine at a value multiple. $300/$400 LEAPS towers are the biggest conviction bet in the market. The memory bottleneck is the overhang. The gamma vise ($205–$210) is the near-term friction.
#2 META — 18.8x fwd, 0.96 PEG. The JPMorgan downgrade in April (Overweight → Neutral, $825 → $725) is the reason it's cheap. The options desk is the most bullish in the Mag 7 (0.44 OI P/C, +15K net LEAPS). The $1,000/$1,500 call towers are the most aggressive upside bets. Capex overhang is real, but the ad business is already repricing.
#3 MSFT — 20.4x fwd, 1.19 PEG. The quiet compounder. Azure AI is the enterprise toll road. The $400 ATM put cluster is the only wrinkle — someone is hedging right at the money. 42% Street upside. Gamma flip at $369, 8.2% cushion.
#4 GOOGL — 25.4x fwd. Cleanest LEAPS book (0.48 P/C). The $650/$550 call towers dominate. Waymo is doing 200K+ paid rides/week. Google Cloud has a $460B backlog. Antitrust is the permanent overhang. FCF margin collapsed to 9.2% on capex.
#5 AMZN — 25.8x fwd. Cheapest P/S (3.7x) in the group. The $370 call tower (48.3K) is huge. But FCF is negative (−$18.2B last quarter) and the Rule of 40 is 6.6. The AWS buildout is the right move — you just have to wait for the payoff.
#6 AAPL — 34.0x fwd, 2.54 PEG. Already above consensus PT (−4%). The iPhone 18 cycle in September is the thesis. Keybanc downgrade to Underweight at $250 is the counter. Safest gamma (14.1% cushion), but the most defensive options skew (+2.57 IV skew).
#7 TSLA — 154.4x fwd, 4.96 PEG. Not a fundamentals story. The $600 call/put mirror is a strangle — someone is betting on a massive move either way. 1.6% from gamma flip. Fragile. Own it if you believe in robotaxis and Optimus, not if you're looking at the P&L.
The Bottom Line
Five of seven below 26x forward. Three with PEGs under 1.0. All seven in long-gamma (dealers are damping, not amplifying). The AI capex overhang is the reason these are cheap. The earnings are realer than the spending fears. NVDA and META lead the ranking. AAPL and TSLA trail.