Copper Hits Record High on DRC Export Ban and Supply Squeeze: What It Means for Miners

Comex copper touched $6.70 per pound as Congo halted concentrate exports and Codelco's El Teniente faces a long suspension. Miners surged then faded. Here is the price action, the supply math, and what to watch.

Copper just set a fresh record in New York and miners ripped into the headline, then gave a little back. Comex September copper touched $6.70 per pound on Aug 6, LME copper neared $14,050 per tonne, and the catalyst was a mix of policy and physical tightness. The DR Congo banned copper concentrate exports effective immediately, Codelco's giant El Teniente mine faces a long suspension, and US buyers have been hoarding metal ahead of a tariff decision that is already overdue.

For investors watching COPX, FCX, SCCO and TECK, the move is real but the chase is risky. Prices are up 14 to 16 percent in a week and sit more than 11 percent above their 20 day averages. That is trend support, not a clean entry.

Copper just set a fresh US record

Copper futures rose to over $6.7 per pound on Thursday, a record high, amid mounting concerns of tight supply and signs of robust demand, according to Copper Rises to Record High. The same report noted the DR Congo announced a ban on exports of copper concentrate effective immediately.

In New York, the September Comex contract touched $6.7045 per pound ($14,781 per tonne), surpassing the prior intraday peak of $6.69 set in mid May, and was trading at $6.6825 in late morning, up 0.6 percent on the day, according to Copper price sets fresh US record as tariff-driven hoarding meets shrinking supply. That leaves New York up about 17 percent year to date. TradingEconomics also printed $6.72 on Aug 6.

London has been strong too. LME copper touched $14,050 per tonne on Wednesday morning after topping $14,000 on Tuesday for the first time in two months, closing in on January's record $14,500. The LME market has flipped into backwardation, with cash copper commanding a premium of more than $100 over three month metal, the widest since January, while New York trades some $640 per tonne above London after the premium averaged more than $350 in July.

Two physical signals sit behind the price. Deliverable copper stocks in SHFE inventories reportedly nearly halved in July to 69.3 thousand tonnes, and more than 200,000 tons of copper reportedly arrived at US ports in July, marking the largest monthly inflow in over a decade, as buyers front run a possible tariff announcement. Both figures are widely cited but not independently verified in our search — treat as reported.

The DRC ban: what actually changed

The headline on Aug 6 was the Exclusive-Congo bans copper and cobalt concentrates order. The government framed it as resource protectionism to push more refining onshore. The order affects major producers including Glencore, Ivanhoe Mines and Chinese firms such as CMOC.

The tonnage math matters. In the first quarter of 2026 the DRC reportedly exported 696,725 tons of copper cathodes compared with 53,926 tons of copper concentrates containing 18,863 tons of contained copper. So the direct volume hit from concentrates is small, but it tightens feed for smelters that rely on DRC concentrate. Source for these tonnages was not returned in our verification — hedged as reported.

There is nuance. Ivanhoe Mines Provides Clarification to Reuters Article Announcing the Ban of Copper and Cobalt Concentrate Exports said a ban on the export of unbeneficiated concentrate has been in place and enforced for close to 10 years. That suggests the Aug 6 announcement may be reaffirmation and stricter enforcement rather than a brand new shock.

Two other supply hits compound the tightness. First, sulphuric acid, which is critical for SX-EW leaching that accounts for about 15 percent of world copper per Kpler, is reportedly in shortage after the Strait of Hormuz closure knocked out about 50 percent of seaborne sulphur and China's sulphuric acid export ban to December removed about 25 percent of global supply. Operations in the DRC and Chile are reportedly down to 30 to 60 days of acid inventory — hedged as reported, not independently verified. Second, Codelco paused its Andes Norte expansion at El Teniente, the world's largest underground mine, after a seismic risk review, per Mining.com. Output reportedly stuck near 300 thousand tonnes per year and the chairman reportedly said there is no path to the 1.7 million tonne target in four to five years. One report noted development at a portion of El Teniente could remain suspended for as long as two years — hedged as reported.

Power and acid constraints are not unique to copper. As we noted in Power Is the New GPUs, grid and input bottlenecks are now the binding constraint on many buildouts, and in Memory Is Not a Commodity: Why MU and SK Hynix Are Priced for a Recession That Isn't Coming we showed how physical tightness can persist even when headline prices look extended.

Miners surged, then paused

Copper miners are high beta to the metal and they moved fast into the news, then faded on Aug 6.

*SCCO/CPER Aug 5 closes not in Bargo price history — shown as prior close. 1-week/1-month not computed for SCCO/CPER due to missing history. COPX/FCX/TECK 1-week/1-month and vs 20-day verified from Bargo equity_price_history. 20-day SMAs: COPX $77.87, FCX $62.22, TECK $59.23.

Context: Aug 5 was the spike close. COPX closed $86.72, up 3.25 percent on 3.7 million shares, after $83.99 on Aug 4, up 5.83 percent on 3.9 million shares. That is a 9.3 percent two day run from $79.36 on Aug 3. FCX closed $69.39 on Aug 5, up 3.1 percent on 17.1 million shares, after $67.30 on Aug 4. Volume was well above average. Aug 6 intraday is digestion, not follow through.

Valuation is not stretched on earnings multiples alone. FCX trades at about 34.3 times trailing earnings and 15.7 times forward earnings with EV to EBITDA 11.5 times. TECK trades at 21.4 times trailing and 17.3 times forward with EV to EBITDA 6.6 times. COPX as a basket trades near 18.6 times trailing. Those multiples already price in higher copper, so the stocks need sustained price strength to justify further expansion.

The chart shows the choppy June to July base around $73 to $79 for COPX, then the vertical break from $79.36 on Aug 3 to $86.72 on Aug 5. FCX and TECK mirror the move. Both COPX and FCX now sit about 11.5 percent above their 20 day moving averages. COPX 20 day is $77.87, FCX 20 day is $62.22. A pullback to those levels would be about 10 percent from current prices, which is normal after this kind of extension.

Technical read: extended but not overbought

Momentum is hot, not yet at a classic overbought extreme.

On Aug 5 closes, RSI was COPX 65.0, FCX 64.4, TECK 62.9. The 70 level that often marks overbought has not been hit, but distance from the 20 day average is the clearer risk. Chasing a record with an 11 percent cushion below is poor risk reward. A cool toward RSI 50 to 55 and a touch of the 20 day or the prior breakout near $80 to $82 for COPX would be a healthier setup.

Is this a buy signal for copper miners

Not a simple buy the record signal. It is a momentum and scarcity trade with a binary overhang.

Bull case: structural deficit narrative is intact. China grid and EV demand, falling visible stocks, LME backwardation, and tariff arbitrage pulling more than 200 thousand tonnes reportedly into US ports in July all support tightness. Miners give direct exposure and have lagged the metal on a 60 day view — COPX -7.1% and FCX -3.0% since Jun 2 to Aug 5 — which leaves room if copper holds.

Bear and fade case: the US hoard is large. Comex inventories are reportedly up about 40 percent year to date to records and the total US hoard is reportedly above 1 million tonnes. If the tariff decision disappoints, that metal can re export and crush the $640 per tonne New York premium. The tariff decision itself is overdue. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's June 30 deadline to recommend phased duties starting at 15 percent in January 2027 and rising to 30 percent the following year passed without an announcement, and the administration is reportedly weighing extending existing 50 percent tariffs on semi finished products to raw metal. That is a binary event — hedged as reported. There was also insider selling into strength. On Aug 5, FCX Chief Accounting Officer Ellie Mikes sold 4,773 shares at $70.00 and EVP Stephen Higgins sold 14,277 shares at $69.50, both routine Form 4 sales but notable as profit taking at the top, per SEC Form 4 Mikes and Higgins.

A better approach than chasing is to wait for a cool. Levels to watch are COPX toward $80 to $82 prior breakout or $77.87 20 day, and FCX toward $65 to $66 or $62.22 20 day, or RSI back to 50 to 55. COPX offers diversified miner exposure, FCX and SCCO offer single name torque if you want more leverage to copper. As with any commodity equity, position size should reflect volatility. Copper miners can move 5 percent in a day on tariff headlines.

For context on how capex and financing shape these cycles, see AI data center debt, the $7 trillion question and Compute Is Becoming a Standalone Asset Class. Blackstone Just Bet $185 Billion on It.. The financing backdrop matters because inventory hoarding and smelter economics are sensitive to rates and working capital.

What to watch

• Tariff decision: any White House or Commerce announcement on refined copper duties and whether 50 percent semi finished tariffs extend to raw metal. Watch the New York to London spread for direction.
• DRC enforcement: do Glencore, CMOC and Ivanhoe shipments actually get blocked, or is this paperwork and stricter enforcement of an old rule.
• Inventories: LME on warrant stocks, SHFE weekly stocks, and Comex warehouse flows. Continued draws support continuation, a US inventory draw would signal the tariff premium fading.
• Acid and El Teniente: sulphuric acid restocking and Codelco's seismic review timeline, weeks versus up to two years — reported timeline hedged.

Sources: Copper Rises to Record High, Copper price sets fresh US record as tariff-driven hoarding meets shrinking supply, Exclusive-Congo bans copper and cobalt concentrates, Ivanhoe Mines Provides Clarification to Reuters Article Announcing the Ban of Copper and Cobalt Concentrate Exports, Codelco pauses El Teniente expansion over seismic risk, Kpler on sulphur tightness, SIP quotes via Alpaca Aug 6 2026 18:41 ET, equity price history and fundamentals via Bargo database.

More research at bargo.ai/research.