Fed Monitor

Futures-implied decision odds, prediction-market pricing, and model-estimated bank-call flip risk. Updated daily · as of 2026-08-14

34%Sept hike odds (futures)
71%Dec hike odds
+31bpPriced through Dec 2026
84%Citigroup flip risk
11Desks tracked
4dMedian flip lag after data
Prediction

Citigroup is likely to make a hawkish revision to its Fed call before the Sept 16 FOMC.

Meeting-by-meeting decision odds

Our own computation, CME-FedWatch methodology: 30-Day Fed Funds futures (ZQ) + current effective rate. Single ±25bp step per meeting; far contracts can carry stale marks.

Hike Hold Cut
Sep 16 2026+9bp expected
34%66%
Oct 28 2026-1bp expected
97%
Dec 9 2026+18bp expected
71%29%
Jan 27 2027-17bp expected · date assumed
32%68%
Mar 17 2027+46bp expected · date assumed
100%
Data table
MeetingImplied rateMoveHikeHoldCut
2026-09-163.72%9bp34%66%0%
2026-10-283.71%-1bp0%97%3%
2026-12-093.89%18bp71%29%0%
2027-01-273.72%-17bp0%32%68%
2027-03-174.18%46bp100%0%0%

Implied policy-rate path

3.50 3.88 4.25 2026-09-16: 3.72% implied 3.72 Sep 16 2026-10-28: 3.71% implied 3.71 Oct 28 2026-12-09: 3.89% implied 3.89 Dec 9 2027-01-27: 3.72% implied 3.72 Jan 27 2027-03-17: 4.18% implied 4.18 Mar 17

Futures-implied effective rate after each meeting.

September: futures vs the crowd

Same decision, two markets — the fed funds strip against Polymarket's odds.

Hike Hold Cut
Futuresfed funds strip
34%66%
Polymarketcrowd odds
28%71%

Which bank changes its Fed call next?

Bargo's fed-call model: desks revise when their published path sits far from market pricing and a data release gives cover; calibrated on this year's actual revision episodes (median trigger→note lag 4 days). Bar = probability of a revision before the next FOMC; color = direction. Narrative model — not a trading signal: bank notes follow market repricing.

Citigroup 50bp of cuts Oct and Dec to 3.00-3.25
84% hawkish · +81bp
UBSunverified STALE: Jan-26 view was cuts Jul+Oct 2026; Ju
84% hawkish · +81bp
Barclays cut calls postponed beyond 2026
66% hawkish · +31bp
Goldman Sachs no change through 2026; cuts Jun+Dec 2027
66% hawkish · +31bp
HSBC no cuts in 2026
66% hawkish · +31bp
Morgan Stanley hold through 2026
66% hawkish · +31bp
Nomuraunverified no recent public call found - assumed hold
66% hawkish · +31bp
Wells Fargounverified in Jul-30 factbox table but value unverified
66% hawkish · +31bp
Bank of America hawkish exception per Jul-27 close-call note
5% at market · +6bp
Deutsche Bank 25bp hike in December
5% at market · +6bp
JPMorgan 25bp hike in December then hold 3.75-4.00
5% at market · +6bp